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is actually no clear sense given as to how one should go actually no clear sense given as to how one should go unpicking themSurprise surprise the authors pay passing homage to prediction markets of which they say much of the time prediction markets have been found to do very well Prediction markets in the wild outisde of organisations have not actually performed very well at all because they lack insiders and do nothing than aggregate noise Their record on political vents over the past ten years has been terrible In the recent Chesham and Amersham By Election in the UK for
example the Tories were trading at 117 on the Betfair Betting Exchange as the Tories were trading at 117 on the Betfair Betting Exchange as opened they lost A better xample in the context of noise would have been horse racing betting markets which contain lots of noise and bias but which display a consistent ability to be predictive because of the presence of insiders who cancel out the noiseSadly it seems that we have gone back twenty years to the notion of the jar of sweets and the benefits of aggregating independent judgements In a nutshell this book is about 380 pages too long I desperately wanted to like this book but Ethique et Infini every page turn felt like dull slap in the face Humans make poor inconsistent decisions and areasily swayed The Vivre en temps réel end Save yourself 16 and move on with your life I don t have a Nobel prize norxpect to get one So maybe this review is reflective of my dumbness But this book was nothing like Thinking Fast and Slow primarily because the core concept seems simple La révolte des élites : Et la trahison de la démocratie enough but beaten to a unnecessarily nasty pulpThe basic premise seems to be that decisions have noise in them duh and its important to understand that we shouldvaluate the decision making process and not just the outcome Accuracy Precision and Bias are terms familiar to anyone with a basic understanding of statistics for others a couple of Discours sur les sciences et les arts earlyxamples focusing on shooting targets Physique easilyducates the three terms and their differences The authors keep on stating the same concepts in a number of ways for the first 5 6 chapters And very often simple observations are turned to very dense phrases without really serving any purpose than trying to sound very academic or scholarly For Electrocinétique, électronique et électromagnétisme en prépa et à l’agrégation : Outils mathématiques de la physique… example what they are trying to achieve is regardless of verifiability is the internal signal of completion provided by the coherence between the facts of the case and the judgement And what they should be trying to achieveis the judgement process that would provide the best judgement over annsemble of similar cases. Hink Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients or that two judges in the same court give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes Now imagine that the same doctor and the same judge make different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon or Monday rather than Wednesday or they havent yet had lunch These are Transferts thermiques: Résumé de cours, problèmes corrigés examples of noise variability in judgements that should be identicalIn Noise Daniel Kahneman Olivier Sibony and Cass R Sunstein show how noise producesrrors in many fields including in medicine law public health Mécanique expérimentale des fluides, tome 1 : Statique et dynamique des fluides non visqueux economic forecasting. This bookxamines how we make judgments and why so many judgments are flawed including those that the makers believe to be correct judgments The authors identify two prevailing problems in human judgments decisions The first is bias and the Having Read Earlier Books By Two Of The earlier books by two of the I was totally disappointed with the content and the style I had A l'image des géants expected much from this book It did nothing for me Extraordinarily dull statistical and mathematical bore of a book A repetitive cure for insomnia For many Kahneman is a God and one that was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his groundbreaking work in applying psychological insights toconomic theory particularly in the areas of judgment and decision making under uncertainty Thinking Fast "and Slow was the book that verybody had to have but as " Slow was the book that verybody had to have but as the case with Hawking s A Brief History of Time one suspects that many copies went unread Kahneman himself in a move akin to God saying that he had difficulty sticking to the Ten Commandments said in a recent interview that my own L'aberration philosophique : Descartes ou Kant ? experience of how little this knowledge has changed the uality of my own judgement can be sobering There were two problems with Thinking Fast and Slow firstly the transition from fast to slow was unuantifiable and second it seemed to propose an ability on the part of the average punter to tap into their unconscious Moreover many of those that read the book were great at spotting biases in other people rather than in themselvesAnd so to Noise a book we are told that is designed to offer suggestions for the improvement of human judgement As for Noise itself we are told in the book that that noise is about statistical thinking We are also told that noise is a distinct source ofrror and that the scatter in the forecasts is noise and that whenever we observe noise we should work to reduce it However we are also told that noise is invisible and Astrophysique - 2e éd. - Etoiles, univers et relativité: Etoiles, univers et relativité embarrassingNoise occurs because people are idiosyncratic they inhabit different psychological spaces their moods are triggered by a uniue set of contexts they see and respond to thevidence in different ways Not to mention their unconscious response to particular cues In many respects seemingly the same things that trigger biases and we are told rather confusingly that psychological biases create system noise when many people differ in their biases We nter a convoluted vortex biases cause noise
where there is noise invisible there will surely also be biases at work the two it seems xist in relationship that there is noise invisible there will surely also be biases at work the two it seems xist in relationship that characteris. The Sunday Times bestsellerA monumental gripping book Outstanding Sunday TimesWherever there is human judgement there is noiseNoise may be the most important book Ive read in than a decade A genuinely new idea soexceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice A masterpieceAngela Duckworth author of GritAn absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sightSteven Levitt co author of FreakonomicsFrom the world leaders in strategic thinking and the multi million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge the next big book to change the way you ,
Read Â PDF, DOC, TXT or Book Æ Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein,
Then the authors spend a chapter or
Two Differentiating Predictive And Evaluative Judgements Onlydifferentiating predictive and valuative judgements only conclude that the difference is fuzzy genius observation and a decision will usually reuire bothIf you are able to grind your way through the first 3 Parts 12 "chapters you will be able to pick up "you will be able to pick up new insights in Part IV and V that discuss on how variabilitynoise occurs and their various sources Conducting a noise audit and what constitutes decision hygiene are sections worth reading for those whose roles reuire constant synthesis of inputs from various xpertssourcesstakeholders Etudier la physique: Le guide de l'étudiant ni particulièrement intelligent, ni particulièrement travailleur, mais un… etcOverall the unnecessarily dense style that overcomplicates a simple message lack of a clear target audience and a narrative arc that just takes too long to provide new insights or provocative thoughts makes this a fairly dull read If one wouldxpect the authors to have built their Noise aka variance thesis using research and references which attended to the cautions and caveats of the American Statistical Association 2016 regarding p values and the now deprecated statistical significance one will be most disappointed One should not be surprised as many of the references illustrating their thesis are in some cases a half century old when statistical significance was the key to getting published and the core of degree Physique statistique - 3ème édition earning dissertationsConsider that the following studies listed in the Notes to the Introduction all used p values 2 Child Protection and Child Outcomes Measuring the Effects of Foster Care 4 Refugee Roulette Disparities in Asylum AdjudicationIn Chapter 1 14 A Survey of 47 Judges dated 1977 Survey vs Random Control Study 16 Extraneous Factors in Judicial Decisions cites a p value0001 on page 5 and similar p value references associated with judges differential and variance in sentencing related to food breaks nearby NFL Team winning recently birthdays outside air temperature IMHO the identification of thesexplanatory factors based on p values are bogus and illustrative of John Ioannidis 2005 paper Why Most Published Research Findings Are FalseIt is disconcerting that these scholar authors utilize many uestionable references to architect a thesis about what is commonly known as variance As the normal Gaussian distribution is ubiuitous one should not be startled that selected ranges within it vary significantlyGiven the presence of uncertainty and the idiosyncracy and variability of individual xperience human judgments will vary Human judgment is noisy DUH The authors have failed their scholarship and professio. Forensic science child protection creative strategy performance review and hiring And although noise can be found wherever people are making judgements and decisions individuals and organizations alike commonly ignore its impact at great costPacked with new ideas and drawing on the same kind of sharp analysis and breadth of case study that made Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge international bestsellers Noise xplains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise and bias in decision making We all make bad judgements than we think With a few simple remedies this groundbreaking book xplores what we can do to make better on. .